How has COVID affected CO2 levels in the atmosphere and what does this mean for the climate future?

By Zara Hayat

The COVID-19 pandemic has left people less able to venture outside of their homes or go on long journeys, which has meant that cars, planes and other forms of transport are overall not being used as much as they were before. As transport contributes a large proportion of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in many countries, the decreasing usage of vehicles led to a global fall in the amount of CO2 emissions in 2020. 

In 2020, Earth experienced a huge drop in CO2 levels, the largest since WWII, of 7%, or 2.4 billion tonnes. This was greater than other major falls in CO2: in WWII, CO2 levels reduced by under a billion tonnes; and, in the economic recession of 2009, the amount of CO2 being released into the atmosphere was half a billion tonnes below usual. According to the study carried out by the Global Carbon Project, which is published in the journal Earth System Science Data, France saw the biggest drop in 2020, of 15%; and the UK the second biggest, of 13%. These two countries have gone into severe lockdowns to prevent waves of coronavirus. Given the contribution of transport to CO2 emissions, the lockdown-related massive decline in transport usage significantly lowered CO2 emissions in these countries. China was an anomaly in the trend, as the country entered and left lockdown much sooner than most other places, meaning its CO2 levels stayed stable, or even rose slightly from 2019. Overall though, CO2 emissions reduced around the world. 

However, as economies are rebuilding themselves and we are hopefully coming to the end of this pandemic, what happened to China’s CO2 emissions last year is beginning to happen to the rest of the world too, but at a much faster rate. By March 2021, CO2 levels in the atmosphere were at 417.4 parts per million (ppm), a record high and 50% above pre-industrial levels. Scientists expect CO2 emissions to peak in 2021 at about 419.5 ppm, compared to 413.94 ppm average in 2020 as people are using cars again and the aviation industry is slowly being opened up. Already, we have seen that the drop in emissions in 2020 was not enough to make a difference to the rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere, and we must do more to make sure we can continue to prevent CO2 from being released. 

The big falls in CO2 that have occurred in history – e.g. in WWII, the global economic recession of 2009 and this pandemic – suggest that it is not structured changes in our lifestyle that are playing a part in reducing emissions, but rather forced severe changes that provoke changes in behaviour. Due to COVID-19, the aviation industry did not gain as much money as usual, while other forms of transport were also being used less often. Restaurants that would usually be very busy with eat-in meals have had to adapt by delivering to customers and making takeaways, and many have gone bankrupt. High-street shops with no online offerings have also suffered, while big retailers have also faced challenges. The huge changes that have been made to these industries and many more have, as noted above, resulted in a huge drop in carbon emissions, but we had not planned for this to happen, therefore the massive reduction was not intentional. This means that we must learn from the experience of the pandemic and what changed to help us deal with climate change. 

One thing governments can do is make roads more suitable for cyclists, as cycling has become more popular in lockdowns and is completely eco-friendly. Walking can also be encouraged as this has also become a hobby for many in lockdowns. COVID and climate change are both crises, but the effects of climate change are much slower than that of COVID. Scientists and other people working together throughout the pandemic as proved to us the massive impact teamwork can have on a crisis. Through the teamwork of scientists all around the world, a vaccination programme began less than a year after the pandemic started. Although there is no vaccine for climate change and it is a harder job to find energy alternatives that could actually be used, we can still learn from the experience of COVID to ensure we take coordinated and urgent action. 

In order to prevent the worst effects of climate change, we need to reach global net zero emissions by 2050, which involves much larger long-term changes in CO2 levels. However, if countries make a plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050, like the roadmap England is currently using to get out of COVID safely, we can achieve this target and make sure we do not make the mistakes of climate change again.